NATO Forward: Block, blunt, break
Deter and defend: Russia is the threat
Introduction
On October 5, 2026, I read remarks by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who tearfully lamented that NATO was preparing for war with innocent Russia through its “defensive plan for its eastern flank.”
Mr. Lavrov, you are correct. NATO has been quite open about its plans to defend against a Russian invasion. At its 2022 Madrid summit, NATO clearly stated,
“The Russian Federation’s war of aggression against Ukraine has shattered peace and gravely altered our security environment … The Russian Federation is the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.”
Mr. Lavrov probably knew that General Alexis G. Grynkewich, USAF, Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), would soon announce NATO’s “Theory of Victory” as the Alliance’s strategy for deterring and defending the Euro-Atlantic area. The general announced it at the Warsaw Security Forum in Warsaw, Poland, on October 12-13, 2026.
General Grynkewich described NATO’s strategy in simple terms
“Block the initial attack.
“Blunt the initial attack and prevent enemy advance.
“Break the enemy’s forces and the operational warfighting system that is arrayed against us if required.”
The general then asked, “Where do we go from here?” His answer,
“Across the Alliance, we are taking steps to operationalise this theory and maximise the readiness of our forces … our Forward Land Forces on the Eastern Flank will exercise and demonstrate their ability to block any attack.”
This report focuses on these Forward Land Forces (FLF) on the Eastern Flank, which is part of a “monumental shift in resources and change in force posture.”
A touch of history
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact in 1991, multiple countries in Eastern Europe sought NATO membership. The 1999 Washington Summit established a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to guide these countries in meeting NATO requirements.
US Presidents William Clinton and George W. Bush supported NATO enlargement. The 9-11 attacks on the US in 2001 bolstered US support.
The May 2002 Rome Summit established the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) to enable Russia and NATO members to coordinate on security matters.
Two major actions resulted from the North Atlantic Council’s (NAC) meeting in Prague in November 2002:
- The NAC, NATO's highest decision-making authority, invited Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia to begin accession talks for joining the NATO Alliance.
- The NAC created the NATO Response Force (NRF). The Allies committed forces on a rotational basis to support a multinational land brigade of about 5,000, ready to deploy within two to three days. Two high-readiness multinational brigades would follow quickly.
The NRF achieved initial operational capability (IOC) in October 2004. The plan was for the NRF to quickly reach a force level of 40,000.
Russia’s invasion and occupation of Crimea in 2014 led to the suspension of the NATO-Russia Council (NRC), though it met 11 times afterward, with the most recent meeting in January 2022.
In November 2015, the presidents of Romania and Poland created “The Bucharest Nine,” comprising NATO members on the alliance’s eastern flank: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. The idea was to coordinate security positions and enhance security in response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the perception that these countries were now threatened.
The following year, in 2016, the NATO Warsaw Summit agreed to establish an Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, consisting of four battalion-sized battlegroups in each country, each capable of operating in concert with national forces. The EFP was later renamed NATO Forward Land Forces (FLF).
This report will examine the FLF more closely.
The Forward Land Forces (FLF) were a “trip-wire” endeavor. A Russian attack across these borders would immediately engage NATO forces, and NATO reinforcement actions would take hold. However, the FLF were not strong enough to threaten Russia; they were meant to signal deterrence.
In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In response, on February 25, 2022, NATO activated the NATO Response Force (NRF). NATO deployed the Very High-Readiness (VHR) Joint Task Force of the NRF for the first time, with France leading. This marked the first time NATO deployed the NRF for a military mission.
Prior to this, on February 16, the US placed 8,500 troops on alert, and on February 25 deployed 7,000 troops from the 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team (BCT), 3rd Infantry Division (3 ID), to Germany. The net result was that the US had three heavy brigades in Europe, with the headquarters of V Corps and XVIII Airborne Corps in Poznan, Poland, and Wiesbaden, Germany, respectively. NATO agreed it could not partner with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
In March 2022, at an extraordinary summit, NATO expanded the FLF battlegroups from four to eight, adding Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria.
At the NATO Madrid Summit in June 2022, NATO invited Sweden and Finland to join the Alliance.
NATO published its “Strategic Concept” in June 2022 following the NATO Madrid Summit. The strategy is to deter, defend, cooperate, and prevent crises and manage them if they occur.
The NATO Force Model replaced the NATO Reaction Force (NRF) in 2024. It became the primary organizing framework for NATO’s multinational forces. Forces are to be available within a three-tier system: 0-10 days ready, 10-30 days ready, and 30-180 days ready.
The NATO Force Model is an Alliance-wide force-generation framework, while the Forward Land Force is a specific battlegroup deployment that is currently in place.
In December 2025, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced the dissolution of the NATO-Russia Council.
NATO has been open about its intent to defend against a Russian invasion. At its 2022 Madrid summit, NATO stated that,
“The Russian Federation’s war of aggression against Ukraine has shattered peace and gravely altered our security environment … The Russian Federation is the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.”
Conceptually, the idea is for the FLF to delay Russian advances until the NATO Force Model can take effect and send reinforcements. The Baltic states and Poland bear the heaviest burden.
